Where can you find a white Christmas in California?
In the mountains. From 1991 to 2020, Tahoe City on Lake Tahoe had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning at 28 of 29 Christmases (97%). Truckee had 24 of 28 (86%) and South Lake Tahoe (the Fallen Leaf station) 20 of 21. Mount Shasta had a white Christmas about every other year (54%). In Southern California the odds are lower: Big Bear Lake at 5 of 20 (25%) and Idyllwild at 2 of 22 (9%). In the valleys and on the coast, never: Fresno, Bakersfield and Eureka didn't have snow on the ground on a single Christmas morning in 30 years.
The tool above gives the odds for 18 NOAA weather stations, mostly in the Sierra Nevada and the far north.
What counts as a white Christmas?
NOAA counts a white Christmas when there is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The tool also lets you count any of December 24, 25 or 26.
Example: Lake Tahoe (Tahoe City)
- 1991–2020: snow on the ground on Christmas morning in 28 of 29 years = 97%
- Only one Christmas in those years had less than 1 inch on the ground.
Has it ever snowed on Christmas in Los Angeles?
No. Los Angeles has never had snow on the ground at Christmas. Big-city weather stations in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and Sacramento don't keep a daily snow-depth record we can use, so they aren't in the tool, but in every year they did report, there was no snow on Christmas morning. For snow near Los Angeles, Big Bear Lake has the best odds; near San Francisco and Sacramento, head up to Tahoe or Truckee.
Where are the odds best?
Snow on the ground on Christmas morning, 1991–2020:
- Lake Tahoe (Tahoe City): 97%
- South Lake Tahoe (Fallen Leaf): 95%
- Truckee: 86%
- Mount Shasta: 54%
- Yosemite area (Hetch Hetchy): 29%
- Big Bear Lake: 25%
- Idyllwild: 9%
Why our numbers differ from NOAA's map
NOAA's white Christmas map gives a smoothed figure: it averages how often there was snow on the ground over a four-week window, December 11 to January 8, across 1991–2020. We count actual Christmas mornings, so our figures differ: Tahoe City is 97% here and about 83% on NOAA's map.
Frequently asked questions
Where is a white Christmas most likely in California?
Around Lake Tahoe: Tahoe City had snow on the ground on 28 of 29 Christmas mornings from 1991 to 2020, and Truckee on 24 of 28.
Does it snow on Christmas in Big Bear?
Sometimes. Big Bear Lake had snow on the ground on Christmas morning in 5 of the 20 years with readings from 1991 to 2020, about one year in four.
Has Los Angeles ever had a white Christmas?
No. There has never been snow on the ground in Los Angeles at Christmas.
Will there be snow at Tahoe for Christmas 2026?
The odds are very good, but check the forecast and road conditions on weather.gov in the week before you travel.
Sources
- NOAA NCEI: Global Historical Climatology Network – Daily (GHCN-Daily), snow depth (SNWD); Menne et al. 2012, doi:10.7289/V5D21VHZ
- NOAA NCEI: Are you dreaming of a white Christmas? (1991–2020 map, updated 6 Dec 2023)
- NOAA NCEI: Christmas Day snow statistics 1991–2020 (station table)
- FOX Weather: cities where a white Christmas might seem impossible (Los Angeles)