White Christmas Odds in France, Town by Town

How likely is a white Christmas in France?

In the lowlands, not very. From 1991 to 2020, at least 1 cm of snow lay on the ground on at least one morning between 24 and 26 December in Paris (Montsouris) at 2 of 27 Christmases (7%), in Lyon at 1 of 29 (3%), in Strasbourg at 4 of 27 (15%) and in Nancy at 4 of 30 (13%). Marseille, Toulouse, Bordeaux and Nice didn't see a single white Christmas in thirty years. In the Alps it's close to a sure thing: Chamonix was white at 26 of 30 Christmases (87%).

The tool above gives these odds for 49 Météo-France weather stations. You can change what counts as "white" and which period is used.

What counts as a white Christmas?

Météo-France, the national weather service, has no formal definition. It simply talks about "snow on the ground at Christmas". Its published counts match one rule best, and that's the tool's default: at least 1 cm of snow on the ground at the morning reading, on at least one day from 24 to 26 December. Germany's weather service is stricter and needs snow on all three mornings, which makes white Christmases in France very rare:

When was the last white Christmas?

For most big cities in the north and east it was 2010, when Strasbourg, Nancy, Dijon, Lille and Lyon all had snow on the ground at Christmas. Paris recorded a thin 1 cm on the morning of 26 December 2017. In the mountains, Chamonix, Megève, Mouthe and Bourg-Saint-Maurice were white again in 2024.

Météo-France reported light lowland snow on 24–25 December 2025, but those readings haven't been validated yet, so our figures stop at Christmas 2024.

Where are the best odds?

Altitude is what counts. Snow on at least one day at Christmas, 1991–2020:

• Pralognan-la-Vanoise (1,420 m): 93%
• Chamonix: 87%, Arvieux (Queyras): 83%, Megève: 80%
• Mouthe (Jura): 63%, Bourg-Saint-Maurice: 63%

In the lowlands, the east and the Alpine foothills do best: Grenoble 17%, Strasbourg 15%, Lille and Orléans 14%, Nancy 13%.

Where the figures come from

We use Météo-France's daily climate data, published as open data. Big-city stations have only reported the 06:00 UTC snow depth every day since the mid-2000s. For earlier years we use the day's maximum snow depth, then the snow-on-the-ground observation. Before 1981, snow depth was only written down on snowy days, which would skew the odds, so those years aren't used. A winter without complete readings counts as neither white nor green.

Frequently asked questions