How likely is a white Christmas in New York?
Upstate, it's close to a coin toss or better. In New York City, it's rare. From 1991 to 2020, there was at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning in Buffalo at 20 of 30 Christmases (67%), in Syracuse and Binghamton at 19 (63%) and in Rochester at 16 (53%). Central Park managed it once in the 24 Christmases with a reading (4%). Up on the Tug Hill Plateau and in the Adirondacks, nearly every Christmas is white: 87% at Highmarket and 88% at Lake Placid.
The tool above gives the odds for 22 NOAA weather stations across New York State.
What counts as a white Christmas?
NOAA counts a white Christmas when there is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. Snow from earlier in the week counts if it's still there. Snow that starts later on Christmas Day doesn't, so the tool also offers a looser rule that counts any of December 24, 25 or 26.
Example: Albany
- 1961–1990: snow on the ground on Christmas morning in 19 of 30 years = 63%
- 1991–2020: 7 of 30 years = 23%
When did New York City last have a white Christmas?
On December 25, 2024, Central Park had 1 inch of snow on the ground at 7 a.m., its first white Christmas since 2009. LaGuardia and JFK last had one in 2009. Upstate, Buffalo, Syracuse and Rochester were white in 2024, and Binghamton, Lake Placid and the Tug Hill Plateau again in 2025. Buffalo's record is 27 inches on the ground on Christmas 2022.
Central Park has no snow-depth reading for a few Christmases (1995–1999 and 2002), so those years are left out rather than counted as green.
Where in New York are the odds best?
Snow on the ground on Christmas morning, 1991–2020:
- Lake Placid: 88%, Tug Hill (Highmarket): 87%
- Buffalo: 67%
- Syracuse and Binghamton: 63%
- Rochester: 53%
- Albany: 23%
- New York City: 4% (Central Park), 7% (LaGuardia), 10% (JFK)
Lake-effect snow off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario is why Buffalo, Syracuse and the Tug Hill do so much better than Albany or the city.
Why our numbers differ from NOAA's map
NOAA's white Christmas map gives a smoothed figure: it averages how often there was snow on the ground over a four-week window, December 11 to January 8, across 1991–2020. We count actual Christmas mornings. That's why our figures can differ from NOAA's, sometimes a lot: NOAA's map gives Albany about 42%, while Albany was actually white on 7 of 30 Christmas mornings.
Frequently asked questions
Will New York City have a white Christmas in 2026?
Nobody can say yet; check the forecast on weather.gov in the week before Christmas. In the past it has been rare: Central Park was white on 1 of 24 Christmas mornings with a reading from 1991 to 2020.
When was the last white Christmas in New York City?
December 25, 2024, when Central Park had 1 inch of snow on the ground at 7 a.m., the first time since 2009.
Where in New York State is a white Christmas most likely?
In the Adirondacks and on the Tug Hill Plateau, where snow covered the ground on almost 9 Christmases in 10 from 1991 to 2020. Buffalo and Syracuse manage about two in three.
What does NOAA count as a white Christmas?
At least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25.
Sources
- NOAA NCEI: Global Historical Climatology Network – Daily (GHCN-Daily), snow depth (SNWD); Menne et al. 2012, doi:10.7289/V5D21VHZ
- NOAA NCEI: Are you dreaming of a white Christmas? (1991–2020 map, updated 6 Dec 2023)
- NOAA NCEI: Christmas Day snow statistics 1991–2020 (station table)
- NWS New York: Christmas Day weather in Central Park
- NWS Buffalo: Christmas climatology