White Christmas Odds in Poland, City by City

How likely is a white Christmas in Poland?

It depends where you are. Counting only Christmases with snow on the ground on all three days, 24 to 26 December, Warsaw had one in 4 of the 30 years from 1991 to 2020 (13%). Poznań also had 4 (13%), Gdańsk 7 (23%) and Kraków 11 (37%). The east and the mountains are snowiest: Białystok 43%, Suwałki 50%, Zakopane 70%, and Kasprowy Wierch in the Tatras was white every single year.

The tool above gives these odds for 37 stations run by IMGW-PIB, Poland's national weather service. You can change what counts as "white" and which period is used.

What counts as a white Christmas?

There's no single official rule. Polish climate studies count a white Christmas when at least 1 cm of snow lies on the ground in the morning on all three days, from Wigilia (Christmas Eve) to the second day of Christmas. That's the tool's default. The press and IMGW's own posts often count Wigilia only, which gives more white Christmases:

Snow depth is measured once a day, at 07:00 Polish time. Snow that falls on Christmas Eve afternoon and melts before morning doesn't show up.

Did it snow more at Christmas in the past?

Yes. In Warsaw, snow lay on all three days of Christmas in 11 of 30 years from 1961 to 1990 (37%), but in only 4 of 30 from 1991 to 2020 (13%). Poznań, Toruń and Zielona Góra show the same drop; it's smaller in the east and the mountains.

When was the last white Christmas?

For most big cities, including Warsaw, Kraków, Gdańsk and Poznań, the last Christmas with snow on all three days was 2021. Wrocław has to go back to 2010. Warsaw did have snow on Wigilia alone in 2023. In 2025 the mountains were white, and so were Lublin and Jelenia Góra, with 1 cm on all three days.

Where are the best odds?

In the east and the mountains. Snow on all three days, 1991–2020:

• Kasprowy Wierch: every year; Śnieżka: 93%
• Zakopane: 70%
• Suwałki and Lesko: 50%
• Białystok: 43%, Lublin: 40%

White Christmases are rarest in the west, along the Oder: 7% in Słubice and 10% in Szczecin.

Where the figures come from

We use IMGW-PIB's public daily weather data for each station and every Christmas since 1951. If any of the three days has no reading, that winter counts as neither white nor green. Gdańsk combines several stations, because measurements moved between sites over the years. Our figures match published analyses for Toruń (24 white Christmases out of 73, 1951–2023) and Poznań (snow on Wigilia 7 times, 1993–2023).

Frequently asked questions